Research has shown that the economic benefits of the project for the people of Poland, Belarus and Ukraine are questionnable. The feasibility study contains a shallow risk analysis. The risks are analysed from the following viewpoint: if the economies of the three countries grow at a slower rate than expected, the impact of the project implementation may be worse than expected (Ales Gerasimenko). E40 waterway advocates also suggest to consider their project not in terms of direct payback but in terms of indirect impact on the economies of the three countries. However, as BUEE analysts estimate, there is no guarantee that modernisation of the waterway between Vistula and Dnieper will bring any long-term economic dividends to the region. Moreover, the impact of the project on Belarusian economy may be negative.

The E40 Inland Waterway will impact heavily on the unique region of the Belarusian Polesye, and on several valuable natural territories in Poland and Ukraine.

Natura 2000 areas Along the Lower and Middle Vistula, the impacted Natura 2000 sites include both Bird Directive Special Protection Areas (SPA) and Habitat Directive Special Areas of Conservation, (SAC). The entire Bug river, from the River Narew to Terespol is part of the Natura 2000 network. In the case of constructing the E40 IWW between Vistula and Terespol based on the preferred third variant, an additional two Natura 2000 sites will be impacted.

The border region of Belarus, Poland, Russia and Ukraine called Polesia hosts one of Europe’s largest wilderness areas with an immense network of protected and unprotected natural areas. The size of this region is more than 18 million hectares and it has immense natural value, making it a cornerstone of a European network of protected areas. The region hosts the most valuable protected areas of Belarus including the Pripyatsky National Park, Polesye State Radiation-Ecological Reserve, 11 national and six local reserves.

Polesia Pripyat, which is the main river of Polesia, is among the few undamaged, free flowing large rivers in Europe with high species and habitat richness. During migration periods, 1.5 million birds recharge in the floodplains of Pripyat, and over 90% of the total number of bird species of Belarus are recorded to inhabit the region. The E40 will impact the breeding sites of the vulnerable Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola). The total length of the E40 would affect sites holding 75% of the species’ population. Polesia’s wetland habitats include fen mires and raised bogs as well as floodplain areas with riparian forests, which are complemented by large areas of forest. Almost all key large mammals – among them lynx, bison, wolf – are to be found here.

Dnieper The valley of the River Dnipro includes several designated Emerald Network sites, which are designated within the framework of the Berne Convention. These areas are not only important for halting biodiversity loss through hosting key species and habitats, but also offer important ecosystem services to the people living in the region.

A part of the E40 Waterway route will pass through the territories affected by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. These are the section of the River Pripyat flowing through the Polesye Radiation Reserve (Belarus), and the section of the Dnieper flowing through the Chernobyl Biosphere Reserve (Ukraine). The E40 Waterway may cause washing of radioactive silt away from the river bed and thereby affect Kiev's water reservoir.