Research has shown that the economic benefits of the project for the people of Poland, Belarus and Ukraine are questionnable. The feasibility study contains a shallow risk analysis. The risks are analysed from the following viewpoint: if the economies of the three countries grow at a slower rate than expected, the impact of the project implementation may be worse than expected (Ales Gerasimenko). E40 waterway advocates also suggest to consider their project not in terms of direct payback but in terms of indirect impact on the economies of the three countries. However, as BUEE analysts estimate, there is no guarantee that modernisation of the waterway between Vistula and Dnieper will bring any long-term economic dividends to the region. Moreover, the impact of the project on Belarusian economy may be negative.

Polesia Polesia is Europe’s Amazon. This stunning region, which straddles the borders of Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, is the continent’s greatest intact floodplain region. Despite ongoing threats from climate change, hunting, logging, and mining, huge areas of Polesia remain pristine. Natural and wild rivers lie at Polesia’s heart – the Bug in Poland, Dnieper in Ukraine, and the 750 km-long Pripyat, one of Europe’s most pristine rivers. The altitude across the remarkable 186,000 km² region never varies by more than 150 meters. Meandering rivers, tributaries, and oxbows shape a labyrinth of wetlands, peatlands, forests, islands, swamps, bogs, marshes, and lakes that are home to some of the most biodiverse and culturally rich parts of Europe. The floodplains also mitigate floods, clean air, and are a major carbon store. Polesia is home to local communities, whose culture and lifestyle is adapted to the extraordinary environment.

Natura 2000 areas Along the Lower and Middle Vistula, the impacted Natura 2000 sites include both Bird Directive Special Protection Areas (SPA) and Habitat Directive Special Areas of Conservation, (SAC). The entire Bug river, from the River Narew to Terespol is part of the Natura 2000 network. In the case of constructing the E40 IWW between Vistula and Terespol based on the preferred third variant, an additional two Natura 2000 sites will be impacted.

The border region of Belarus, Poland, Russia and Ukraine called Polesia hosts one of Europe’s largest wilderness areas with an immense network of protected and unprotected natural areas. The size of this region is more than 18 million hectares and it has immense natural value, making it a cornerstone of a European network of protected areas. The region hosts the most valuable protected areas of Belarus including the Pripyatsky National Park, Polesye State Radiation-Ecological Reserve, 11 national and six local reserves.

Polesia Pripyat, which is the main river of Polesia, is among the few undamaged, free flowing large rivers in Europe with high species and habitat richness. During migration periods, 1.5 million birds recharge in the floodplains of Pripyat, and over 90% of the total number of bird species of Belarus are recorded to inhabit the region. The E40 will impact the breeding sites of the vulnerable Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola). The total length of the E40 would affect sites holding 75% of the species’ population. Polesia’s wetland habitats include fen mires and raised bogs as well as floodplain areas with riparian forests, which are complemented by large areas of forest. Almost all key large mammals – among them lynx, bison, wolf – are to be found here.

Dnieper The valley of the River Dnipro includes several designated Emerald Network sites, which are designated within the framework of the Berne Convention. These areas are not only important for halting biodiversity loss through hosting key species and habitats, but also offer important ecosystem services to the people living in the region.

Impacts on waterways To enable freight ships to navigate the waters would require straightening, deepening, damming, and dredging of rivers in some of the most environmentally sensitive parts of the region. The construction work could dry up rivers, directly impact 38 internationally protected areas, threaten species, and potentially disturb radioactive pollution in the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Air pollution from ships would afflict major cities on the route, while accidents and oil spills are a major risk. The E40 Waterway would undermine ecosystem services such as water retention, flood mitigation, clean air, and carbon storage.

Hydrological impacts Construction of the E40 Waterway would require dredging 6 million m³ of sediment from the Pripyat river in the first year alone – enough to fill more than 2,000 Olympic swimming pools to the brim. 3.5 million m³ would be dredged across the E40 each subsequent year. This would cause major and unpredictable hydrological changes. Water would flow out of the area faster than it could be replenished, expansive wetlands would dry up. It would cut directly through 38 protected areas of international importance, including Pripyatsky National Park and the Almany mires – a huge complex of untouched mires and peatbogs. More than 2,000 km² of peatland could be affected in total. If drained this could result in annual emissions equal to those from 2 million cars. Habitats and stopover sites would be destroyed. Species such as the aquatic warbler would be at immediate risk of extinction.

Droughts, destroyed rivers and wildlife in Poland Construction of the E40 Waterway would involve a new channel in Poland, linking the Vistula river with the Poland-Belarus border. All proposed variations would lead to extreme consequences including droughts and the destruction of water resources used by citizens and farmers. A massive amount of water would be required, yet there are few viable water sources. Several key rivers would likely run dry or be severely altered. Water siphoned from rivers would require uphill pumping, which would be extremely expensive and may not be technically feasible.

A part of the E40 Waterway route will pass through the territories affected by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. These are the section of the River Pripyat flowing through the Polesye Radiation Reserve (Belarus), and the section of the Dnieper flowing through the Chernobyl Biosphere Reserve (Ukraine). The E40 Waterway may cause washing of radioactive silt away from the river bed and thereby affect Kiev's water reservoir and pose an increased radiation risk for millions of people downstream.